Statistically Speaking...

[Tania Edwards]

I was searching through many topics on the Forum the other night and came across an old post relating to the murder(death) rates of adult women in England that were attributed to throat cutting. The poster added a vertical bar graph spanning about 10 years (I think 1880 - 1890). It showed that 1888 had a significantly higher number of murders in this category (15) than any other year during the time period shown. I've tried the Search bar but no matter what word or phrases I put in I get no results or simply cannot find the relevant post. I thought perhaps that those who have been on this Forum for many years might remember??


It made me think that, statistically speaking, what was the likelihood/probability that more than one killer operated in the same restricted area within a short time frame and had a similar MO? The data in the graph covered England overall. I wonder if it is possible to drill down the data to more specific locations.


t

[Sam Flynn]

Might be one of mine. I'll check if I've still got a copy later, when I get home.

[Cris Malone]

I believe this is what you're looking for:

http://www.jtrforums.com/showthread.php?t=12204

[Tania Edwards]

I believe this is what you're looking for:

http://www.jtrforums.com/showthread.php?t=12204

Yes this is the post. Thank you so much.


t

[Sam Flynn]

I believe this is what you're looking for:
http://www.jtrforums.com/showthread.php?t=12204

Thanks Cris. Mine was London only, I think. I'll still try to find it later.

I'd make a couple of observations at this stage, however:

1. Not sure if data for manslaughter found their way into those stats, but they should IMHO be included;

2. We should also include non-fatal assaults in which knives were used.

Only then can we get a true feel for the prevalence of knife crime.

[Sam Flynn]

Found it! Here's my histogram of London murders (of all kinds, not just knife-based) from 1884 to 1906:



It's a section of a bigger graph that went from 1871-1911, but I appear to have mislaid that one; it was a long time ago!

[Anna Morris]

There was a big jump in 1888. Can this be tied to any other event? Soldiers returning from a particularly nasty war front? Especially hard times? Higher unemployment? Cheaper alcohol? As I recall, the weather in 1888 was more cold and dreary than usual, or so have Ripper authors frequently portrayed it.

I don't know if I understand the first graph of women murdered throughout England by stabbing or cutting. TWO in 1888? I must not be reading it right?

[Kattrup]

I don't know if I understand the first graph of women murdered throughout England by stabbing or cutting. TWO in 1888? I must not be reading it right?

Apparently there were different categories, “cut/stab” and “throat cut”.

So in 1888 there were two women killed by a cut/stab other than a cut throat.

[Sam Flynn]

There was a big jump in 1888. Can this be tied to any other event? Soldiers returning from a particularly nasty war front?

Peter Vronsky, in his recent book Sons of Cain: A History of Serial Killers suggests that, for various reasons, it the sons of fathers exposed to terrible wars might be more likely to become serial killers. Picking up on Vronsky's idea, I might imagine that the that "spike" in 1888 might be the aftershock of the Crimean war that ended in 1856. The next spike in 1901 might be partly explicable by the First Boer War of 1880-81.

Obviously it's not as simple as that, but it's an interesting thought.

[Robert Linford]

Hi Gareth


The First Boer War was fairly short, but you can bolster it by bringing in the Afghan War, and the Zulu War.

[Tania Edwards]

In general war involves men killing other men. How does this relate to JtR case.

[Sam Flynn]

The First Boer War was fairly short, but you can bolster it by bringing in the Afghan War, and the Zulu War.

Indeed, Robert - although I daresay that any exposure to the horror of combat might be enough to produce a few unbalanced fathers, however brief the campaign.

[Anna Morris]

In general war involves men killing other men. How does this relate to JtR case.

My thinking on this is that I have read that some military actions on the wilder edges of the empire were particularly brutal. I really don't know anything about it but subjects like the Thuggees (ritual stranglers in India) were generally known and feared. How might primitive violence have affected soldiers? Even today some primitive, ritualized violence exists in the world, such as honour killings of women.

That is interesting, what others have said here about sons of fathers....

Thanks, Kattrup, for the explanation.

[Sam Flynn]

The next spike in 1901 might be partly explicable by the First Boer War of 1880-81.

Apropos that "spike" of 35 London murders in 1901, it's interesting that we get exactly the same figure if we subtract the canonical Ripper murders from the total for 1888.

[Gary Barnett]

Apropos that "spike" of 35 London murders in 1901, it's interesting that we get exactly the same figure if we subtract the canonical Ripper murders from the total for 1888.

I wonder what % of the male population of London would have had experience of those wars.

I once had an interesting book - ‘Queen Victoria’s Little Wars’ I think it was called - from which I got the impression that we were at war somewhere in the world in every year of her reign. I’d imagine the horrors of the Indian Mutiny, for instance, would have affected those involved.