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Statistically Speaking...

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  • Statistically Speaking...

    I was searching through many topics on the Forum the other night and came across an old post relating to the murder(death) rates of adult women in England that were attributed to throat cutting. The poster added a vertical bar graph spanning about 10 years (I think 1880 - 1890). It showed that 1888 had a significantly higher number of murders in this category (15) than any other year during the time period shown. I've tried the Search bar but no matter what word or phrases I put in I get no results or simply cannot find the relevant post. I thought perhaps that those who have been on this Forum for many years might remember??


    It made me think that, statistically speaking, what was the likelihood/probability that more than one killer operated in the same restricted area within a short time frame and had a similar MO? The data in the graph covered England overall. I wonder if it is possible to drill down the data to more specific locations.


    t

  • #2
    Might be one of mine. I'll check if I've still got a copy later, when I get home.
    Kind regards, Sam Flynn

    "Suche Nullen"
    (F. Nietzsche)

    Comment


    • #3
      I believe this is what you're looking for:

      http://www.jtrforums.com/showthread.php?t=12204
      Best Wishes,
      Cris Malone
      ______________________________________________
      "Objectivity comes from how the evidence is treated, not the nature of the evidence itself. Historians can be just as objective as any scientist."

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Cris Malone View Post
        I believe this is what you're looking for:

        http://www.jtrforums.com/showthread.php?t=12204


        Yes this is the post. Thank you so much.


        t

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Cris Malone View Post
          I believe this is what you're looking for:
          http://www.jtrforums.com/showthread.php?t=12204
          Thanks Cris. Mine was London only, I think. I'll still try to find it later.

          I'd make a couple of observations at this stage, however:

          1. Not sure if data for manslaughter found their way into those stats, but they should IMHO be included;

          2. We should also include non-fatal assaults in which knives were used.

          Only then can we get a true feel for the prevalence of knife crime.
          Kind regards, Sam Flynn

          "Suche Nullen"
          (F. Nietzsche)

          Comment


          • #6
            Found it! Here's my histogram of London murders (of all kinds, not just knife-based) from 1884 to 1906:

            Click image for larger version

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            It's a section of a bigger graph that went from 1871-1911, but I appear to have mislaid that one; it was a long time ago!
            Kind regards, Sam Flynn

            "Suche Nullen"
            (F. Nietzsche)

            Comment


            • #7
              There was a big jump in 1888. Can this be tied to any other event? Soldiers returning from a particularly nasty war front? Especially hard times? Higher unemployment? Cheaper alcohol? As I recall, the weather in 1888 was more cold and dreary than usual, or so have Ripper authors frequently portrayed it.

              I don't know if I understand the first graph of women murdered throughout England by stabbing or cutting. TWO in 1888? I must not be reading it right?
              The wickedness of the world is the dream of the plague.~~Voynich Manuscript

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Anna Morris View Post

                I don't know if I understand the first graph of women murdered throughout England by stabbing or cutting. TWO in 1888? I must not be reading it right?
                Apparently there were different categories, “cut/stab” and “throat cut”.

                So in 1888 there were two women killed by a cut/stab other than a cut throat.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Anna Morris View Post
                  There was a big jump in 1888. Can this be tied to any other event? Soldiers returning from a particularly nasty war front?
                  Peter Vronsky, in his recent book Sons of Cain: A History of Serial Killers suggests that, for various reasons, it the sons of fathers exposed to terrible wars might be more likely to become serial killers. Picking up on Vronsky's idea, I might imagine that the that "spike" in 1888 might be the aftershock of the Crimean war that ended in 1856. The next spike in 1901 might be partly explicable by the First Boer War of 1880-81.

                  Obviously it's not as simple as that, but it's an interesting thought.
                  Kind regards, Sam Flynn

                  "Suche Nullen"
                  (F. Nietzsche)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Hi Gareth


                    The First Boer War was fairly short, but you can bolster it by bringing in the Afghan War, and the Zulu War.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      In general war involves men killing other men. How does this relate to JtR case.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Robert Linford View Post
                        The First Boer War was fairly short, but you can bolster it by bringing in the Afghan War, and the Zulu War.
                        Indeed, Robert - although I daresay that any exposure to the horror of combat might be enough to produce a few unbalanced fathers, however brief the campaign.
                        Kind regards, Sam Flynn

                        "Suche Nullen"
                        (F. Nietzsche)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Tania Edwards View Post
                          In general war involves men killing other men. How does this relate to JtR case.
                          My thinking on this is that I have read that some military actions on the wilder edges of the empire were particularly brutal. I really don't know anything about it but subjects like the Thuggees (ritual stranglers in India) were generally known and feared. How might primitive violence have affected soldiers? Even today some primitive, ritualized violence exists in the world, such as honour killings of women.

                          That is interesting, what others have said here about sons of fathers....

                          Thanks, Kattrup, for the explanation.
                          The wickedness of the world is the dream of the plague.~~Voynich Manuscript

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Sam Flynn View Post
                            The next spike in 1901 might be partly explicable by the First Boer War of 1880-81.
                            Apropos that "spike" of 35 London murders in 1901, it's interesting that we get exactly the same figure if we subtract the canonical Ripper murders from the total for 1888.
                            Kind regards, Sam Flynn

                            "Suche Nullen"
                            (F. Nietzsche)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sam Flynn View Post
                              Apropos that "spike" of 35 London murders in 1901, it's interesting that we get exactly the same figure if we subtract the canonical Ripper murders from the total for 1888.
                              I wonder what % of the male population of London would have had experience of those wars.

                              I once had an interesting book - ‘Queen Victoria’s Little Wars’ I think it was called - from which I got the impression that we were at war somewhere in the world in every year of her reign. I’d imagine the horrors of the Indian Mutiny, for instance, would have affected those involved.

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