Lechmere and the Unknown Local theory

[Markus Aurelius Franzoi]

Can I ask the Lechmere skeptics and critics, and especially those who seek to debunk his candidacy, whether they have thought through the alternative to Lechmere? Without Lechmere, what are you left with? Who and what kind of killer are we talking about now?

Polly was at Osborn and Whitechapel at 2:30 going east. Then what? How does she end up where she is killed between say 3:20 and 3:30 with a window of 10 to 15 minutes? And no one saw the killer?

Are you getting rid of the suspect you don’t want for a suspect, or suspect profile, that you want even less?

Personally, I think the House of Lechmere makes the best case for the “unknown local” theory of “mainstream” Ripperology. And this is where the shoe drops on the theory of the crazy “unknown local” who blitzes his victims in attacks that are not meticulously planned.

[Christer Holmgren]

Thank you for your thoughtful post, Markus. In many ways, it resembles an oasis in a forbidding desert.

I never thought that the killer was what is commonly referred to as disorganized. Nor do I believe that what we are looking at is a series of blitz attacks with an underlying frenzy. If I did, it would fly in the face of the suggestion that a single killer was responsible for both murder series, the Ripper murders as well as the Thames Torso murders. In the latter series, it is fully evident that we are dealing with a planner, who would have been meticulous in more than one respect. It encompasses not only the skilled cutting, but evidently also the ability to spirit away victims undetected and to store those victims´ body parts over time and then dump them in various locations all over London.

That is a picture that does not sit well with the notion of a so called disorganized, frenzied blitz attacker. Personally, I have always found that one of the keys to understanding what we are dealing with is the Kelly murder. In that case, there have been so many students of the case who have spoken of an extreme hatred for women coupled with a total frenzy.
And still, we have the organs lying around her body, all of them - as far as the reports tell us - in complete, unharmed order. It is not a question of a liver hacked to pieces and strewn all over the room, it is a question of a liver that lies intact inbetween her feet. It is not a question of two sliced kidneys, flung onto the floor, it is a question of both of them having been tucked under the head of Mary Kelly, like part of a pillow, complemented by the uterus and a breast. The organs are not described as being damaged in any way, they seem to be complete and intact. And the breast has been cut away by way of a circular incision, making sure that all of the muscular structure belonging to it, down to the ribcage, came along.
It is all very, very neatly done, and not the work of somebody pushing a lawnmower over the body. Even the eyes seem to have been left intact in their sockets, in spite of how the face has been cut to mincemeat.

To me, that describes the work of a truly meticulous man, not the work of a frenzied, disorganized maniac. And it is to a degree therefore that the two series can be looked upon as two branches of the same tree.
The more obvious reason for making the comparison of course lies in the similarities in between the damage caused to the various victims, as outlined in my book Cutting Point as well as on public discussion boards. It has not been welcomed by the sceptics and critics you refer to. Not at all, in fact. I have been told that the similarities I point to:

- both series involve prostitutes as victims
- both series involve cutting from ribcage to groin
- both series involve organ removal (uteri, hearts)
- both series involve the cutting away of the abdominal wall in large panes with attaching subcutaneous tissue
- both series involve the theft of victims rings
- both series involve cut necks
- both series involve great cutting skills, as described by contemporary medicos
- both series involve killing or dumping of victims in the East End
- both series were performed in the same general time frame

... are not proven similarities, they are "issues" and may be superficial only.
I strongly protest against such a description. In my world, these kinds of inclusions should not be regarded as issues until they can be proven to be genuine similarities - they should be regarded as genuine similarities until proven superficial only.

Again, thank you for that brief walk in a soothing oasis. Very refreshing!

[Christer Holmgren]

Polly was at Osborn and Whitechapel at 2:30 going east. Then what? How does she end up where she is killed between say 3:20 and 3:30 with a window of 10 to 15 minutes? And no one saw the killer?

One of my sticking points; if Nichols was killed at 3.20, and if John Neil reached the body at around 3.51, as reasoned in my book (I am going on how the inquest concluded that the body was found at around 3.45 and on how I think it would have taken Neil approximately six minutes after Lechmere left to arrive at the scene and how it would have taken Mizen another three minutes or so to get there), then she would have bled for around 31 minutes as Neil found her, and 34 minutes when Mizen arrived. If she was killed at 3.30, we get the numbers 21 and 24 minutes instead. That is way too much to be in any way likely as per the forensic experts I engaged when writing Cutting Point. Both professors agreed that the likelies time frame for the bleeding out process would be 3-5 minutes, and professor Thiblin said that he regarded 10, perhaps 15 minutes, as an absolute maximum; a not likely but perhaps possible time frame.
There is also the fact that Paul was certain that he felt the body stir as he laid his hand on the chest of it.

All in all, it seems to me that Lechmere must be a very obvious bid for the cutters role if Mizens observation of fresh looking and still running blood at a time nine minutes or so removed from Lechmeres departure. I think that she could hardly have been cut as early as 3.20 or 3.30. Therefore, I am glad to see that you offer a 15 minute window to add to the 3.30 suggestion. It takes us right up to 3.45, and personally I believe that is a time that will be very, very close to the actual TOD.

[Edward Stow]

Yes a rare balanced post - I would take issue just with the timing and the unplanned Blitz attack bits.

I think the evidence - Paul thinking she was still alive, Dr Llewellyn's estimate and the blood spread, all points to the attack taking place immediately before the Paul-Lechmere meeting. Whether this was at 3.40 or 3.45 is irrelevant for this aspect.

Also I think the attacks were carried out with as much planning as is possible in the circumstances. I don't doubt he often didn't follow through if he was uncomfortable with the scenario.

[Markus Aurelius Franzoi]

Hello Christer and Edward,

It’s always nice to find a refuge in the never ending gauntlet. This demonstrates why I am willing to seek out other suspect theorists for discussions.

Edward is correct about the timing I have. The 10-15 minute window was for arrival and escape and not for the murder. So it gives at most 5-7.5 minutes after a 3:30 murder. Of course, I’m leaving room for another person as the killer as I must still do.

Hopefully you will allow for the possibility of strangulation to overcome the Blood Loss time estimate and give another suspect, named or unnamed, a chance. Otherwise, I’ll agree it’s game over.

But why blow the whistle just yet? Don’t you want to throw the ball or the knife in the skeptic’s court? Should be interesting. If no one else will pick up the baton or the knife, I guess then I will.

The blitz attack stuff I included was for the people who are blinded by the mutilation and see that as an MO. I agree with both of you it should be discarded. And if I wasn’t convinced of that before, I was after reading your first post, Christer.

[Edward Stow]

I think the whole thing - from meeting (probably on Whitechapel Road nearish to the station, somewhere roughly opposite the London Hospital - that would be my best guess) to death and partial mutilation - less than ten minutes.
A fantasy acted out in his head many times before, with probably a few prior, almost victims 'allowed' to unknowingly escape with a last minute excuse where he didn't feel comfortable.
This would actually I think be the most likely scenario for a non-Lechmere killer, if somehow it wasn't him.

If it wasn't him, then Lechmere must have unknowingly disturbed the culprit who fled unseen and unheard.
He can't have escaped eastwards down Bucks Row.
It seems unlikely he can have doubled back down Winthrop Street as the nightwatchman would have most likely seen him and there is the possibility of PC Thane or Robert Paul seeing him emerge.
If he used one of the exits - Thomas or Court (is it?) - to Whitechapel Road there was PC Neil and a fixed point Constable who could have seen him.
Mizen was at the far end to the west.
It wasn't hermetically sealed but there would be a good chance anyone fleeing would be seen.
Then there are all the odd things about Lechmere's behaviours that you have to give innocent explanations to, one after another.

[Edward Stow]

The killer must have been comfortable knowing these options I think. Knowing what lay around each corner - a blind alley, a dead end, or whatever.
And this murder was not close to the City - it wasn't on the fringe, as with Chapman, Eddowes and Kelly. It was deep inside the East End. This speaks for a local killer.

[Gary Barnett]

The killer must have been comfortable knowing these options I think. Knowing what lay around each corner - a blind alley, a dead end, or whatever.
And this murder was not close to the City - it wasn't on the fringe, as with Chapman, Eddowes and Kelly. It was deep inside the East End. This speaks for a local killer.

I’ve always had an issue with the idea that the killer must have had an encyclopaedic knowledge of the geography of the East End to have been able to evade capture, and even more so that he must have been familiar with all the relevant police beats and their timings. You wouldn’t have needed such detailed knowledge to avoid being caught. But you might’ve found it comforting to be familiar with the area in which you were operating.

Did Lech have that degree of knowledge about the locations where the murders took place?

[Markus Aurelius Franzoi]

I think the whole thing - from meeting (probably on Whitechapel Road nearish to the station, somewhere roughly opposite the London Hospital - that would be my best guess) to death and partial mutilation - less than ten minutes.
A fantasy acted out in his head many times before, with probably a few prior, almost victims 'allowed' to unknowingly escape with a last minute excuse where he didn't feel comfortable.
This would actually I think be the most likely scenario for a non-Lechmere killer, if somehow it wasn't him.


Bucks Row looks like a big wide gallery with imposing buildings and I think it makes for a perfect crime scene. You can see anyone coming from the east a long way and you’re hidden from the side streets on White’s Row as Bucks Row merges at an angle.

But to get there, he’d have to avoid being seen by PC Neil and follow him, with Polly, to the west end of Bucks Row and presumably wait 5 minutes for him to turn the corner at the east end and get into position for around 3:20. Whitechapel Road looks pretty straight with long sight lines.

[Christer Holmgren]

Hello Markus!

On the TOD and bleeding issues, the two professors of forensic pathology I refer to when I discuss these matters are Jason Payne-James (who participated in the documentary) and Ingemar Thiblin of Uppsala university, Sweden. They both were familiar with how Nichols may well have been strangled before mutilated, and weighed that in when they gave their thoughts. And both men agreed that Nichols should have bled out in around 3-5 minutes with the extensive damage she suffered.
The matter is of course a complex one - there are cases where the heart has gone on beating for a significant time even after decapitation of criminals, for example. So even if Nichols was strangled, she may have had a beating heart as the mutilations commenced, and equally, she may not have had that. But these things were all weighed in by the professors.

If they are correct, then once we know that Nichols was still bleeding around nine minutes or so after Lechmere left her, it becomes completely improbable that she could have been cut at 3.30. Such a timing should have resulted in her bleeding up until 3.33-3.35 if she followed the expected curve, and up until 3.40-3.45 if she stretched the bleeding time into what Thiblin considered the absolute maximum.
But she bled for a lot longer than so. If she was cut at 3.45, she was still bleeding at least up until around 3.54, when Mizen would have arrived. And he said that the blood was "still running" from the neck as he saw her and that the blood "looked fresh".

What is apparent is that Nichols would not have fallen within the 3-5 minute category, but instead she would have drawn close to the maximum time with a bleeding time of at least around 9 minutes. If that maximum bleeding time estimation is good enough, then we are left with a time window for another person to have done the cutting of 0-6 minutes. That means that such a person cannot be excluded, of course. But it can never mean that he would be as likely a bid as Lechmere, primarily of course because Lechmere has a proven presence at the site whereas an alternative killer has no such thing.

There is then of course also the fact that Paul said that he was certain that he felt movement in the body as he put his hand on Nichols´ chest. That is not something that can be taken lightly. It could have been her last heartbeat or it could have been an electrically induced quiver, a common enough thing with a deceased person - but it will not occur many minutes after death.

These matters is why I do not think that Lechmere got into position at around 3.20 after having made sure that Neil had disappeared in the east. My take on things is that the cutting will have commenced much later, and I don´t think that the killer would have waited in place with Nichols for ten minutes or so before he subdued, strangled and started cutting her.
The forensic evidence we have tells a story. The carmen saw no blood (meaning, of course that Paul did not. If Lechmere was the killer and DID see blood, he would arguably clam up about it), Neil said that he saw a pool under the neck as he shone his light on it, and he is quoted as saying both that the blood was running and that it was oozing. To me, "oozing" does not necessarily mean that there was only a tiny amount of bleeding, it can equally mean that there was no pressure behind the bleeding that was there. And Neil also said "running". Moreover, he is quoted from the original interviews as saying that the blod ran "profusely" from the wound.
And then we have Mizen, who says that the blood was "still running" - and that it was running into the gutter! This last remark was not made by Lechmere, Paul or Neil. Of course, Neil may have seen it and left it out, but if there had been blood running into the gutter as the carmen were there, then surely they would have seen it. They had no problems seeing the hat in the darkness, for example.

All in all, I find that there is absolutely no reason, forensically speaking, to reason that Nichols would have been cut at 3.20-3.30, whereas there are numerous reasons to accept that she was cut at around 3.40-3.45.

[Edward Stow]

Gary
I agree that encyclopedic knowledge of the streets and beats is unnecessary.
Familiarity is not encyclopedic.

In Lechmere's case he had about 11 weeks to familiarise himself with the different potential routes from Doveton Stret to Eldon Street. Roughly 66 return trips. That is plenty if time I would suggest. Particularly if he had particular intentions.

Also as a carman he may have had to deliver to places in that area in the past, and he had lived in the broader East End all his adult life.

He would have also no doubt noticed some of the police beats along his way. Again if he had preexisting intentions - which he surely must have had - then he probably would have paid more attention to this sort of thing than a normal person would.

Some of this obviously would apply to any local killer.

As I have said, my best guess is that Polly was picked up on Whitechapel Road and she led him to her death. I think he would have known the road and alley layout around Bucks Row, particularly the exits south to Whitechapel Road. Less likely the couple of exits north (Queen Ann and the North side of Thomas) as they don't really go anywhere or link up anywhere useful to him and I think he would always do his pick ups on the main drags.

When a street walking prostitute was picked up, I also doubt they would ever walk too far to their designated business spot.

I think he probably passed PC Neil on his beat on Whitechapel Road so was able to roughly guage how long he had.

Was Polly familiar with the area? She had been in the East End a few weeks. She'd probably been there before otherwise why had she headed to the East End? There were other options - poorer and with just as many prostitutes, such as the South Bank.

On the night in question she seems to have deliberately headed east, probably touting for trade as she went down Whitechapel Road. At that time of night there cannot have been that many takers. It was only the most desperate and most irresponsible (those who had blown all their previous taking on drink) prostitutes it seems who were looking for business at that hour.
Why didn't she head west? It would get busier as you go west as more thoroughfares converge on the City.
Maybe the territory she worked, during her sojourn in the East End, was east up Whitechapel Road. Maybe she was fairly familiar with the streets and alleys immediately off Whitechapel Road.

I can just imagine anti Lechmere theory critics foaming at the mouth at this speculation. But it is reasoned speculation and pretty much applies to any local killer and I think is the most likely explanation for Polly's movements.

[Gary Barnett]

As you say, lots of speculation. You’re aware of my equally speculative (and equally reasonable) speculation that Lech may have carried horse flesh on his cart, so you may be right that he knew the environs of Winthrop Street. But it’s also possible that his carmen activities never took him anywhere near Bucks Row and I doubt he would have formed an idea of how secluded it might be at 3.45 a.m. before he started making the journey from Doveton Street to Broad Street station. As for Polly, we have a lot of information about her movements from workhouse records etc. but I’m not aware that the East End features much (if at all) in those records. Having just pinched £5 worth of clothes from the family she had been placed with by the Lambeth Guardians, she was probably wary of returning to any of her usual stamping grounds and very likely chose the East End because she was not known there and there were lots of cheap doss houses where she could lay low.

[Edward Stow]

I doubt she would have been concerned about being the subject of a manhunt.

The quietitude of those streets would have become soon apparent over those 11 weeks... 8 weeks to Tabram.

[Gary Barnett]

I doubt she would have been voncerned anout being the subject of a manhunt.

The quietitude of those streets would have become soon apparent over those 11 weeks... 8 weeks to Tabram.

I think if she’d turned up at the Lambeth work’us they might have called the cops. Martha Cowdry contacted them as soon as Polly went awol.

Yes, the streets he passed through in the early hours would.

[Markus Aurelius Franzoi]

If she was cut at 3.45, she was still bleeding at least up until around 3.54, when Mizen would have arrived. And he said that the blood was "still running" from the neck as he saw her and that the blood "looked fresh".

With everything favoring a slower bleed out, can we go for up to 10-15 minutes bleed out time? What would be the timeframe available for our hypothetical alternate Jack the Ripper in that case?

Can we put Lechmere there at the latest 3:43 or so, just 2 minutes ahead of Paul? In that case, couldn't we put a hypothetical person there committing the crime between 3:30 and 3:43, with the cutting done around 3:40-3:41?

I didn't account for the hypothetical Ripper being maybe at least 5-10 minutes behind Neil instead of right behind him and then taking up to five minutes for strangulation unto brain death and/or to prevent regaining of consciousness. That would take up the 15 minutes to 3:30 so I might have to put the cutting portion of the murder after that time just by the timeframe itself, even before considering the bleed out time.