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New Deadly Virus is Spreading/ Covid19 Pandemic 2020

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  • Anna...I'll change it.


    Looking back on the thread....on February 16th, there were only 15 confirmed cases of Covid19 in the US.

    In the last 266 days, we've averaged 36, 954 confirmed cases per day.
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    • Originally posted by Howard Brown View Post
      Anna...I'll change it.


      Looking back on the thread....on February 16th, there were only 15 confirmed cases of Covid19 in the US.

      In the last 266 days, we've averaged 36, 954 confirmed cases per day.
      Yes. We need to batten down the hatches because it's going to get worse with the cold weather and people having to be indoors.
      Christopher T. George, Lyricist & Co-Author, "Jack the Musical"
      https://www.facebook.com/JackTheMusical/ Hear sample song at https://tinyurl.com/y8h4envx.

      Organizer, RipperCon #JacktheRipper-#True Crime Conferences, April 2016 and 2018.
      Hear RipperCon 2016 & 2018 talks at http://www.casebook.org/podcast/.

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      • More on Kate Bingham, the UK's "vaccine tsar".

        The head of the government's vaccine taskforce has charged the taxpayer ?670,000 for a team of boutique relations consultants.
        Kate Bingham, a venture capitalist married to Jesse Norman, a Conservative minister, was appointed to the role by Boris Johnson.
        Since June she has used eight full-time consultants from Admiral Associates, a London PR agency, to oversee her media strategy.
        According to leaked documents, she has already spent ?500,000 on the team, which is contracted until the end of the year. It means each consultant is on the equivalent of ?167,000 a year - more than the prime minister's salary.
        https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/v...bill-sjxmrz2bx


        Words fail me.

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        • Originally posted by Chris Phillips View Post
          I think it is known to have passed between the species in both directions.


          The worry is that as there are several mutations in the spike protein, the vaccines under development may be less effective against the new strain. Not that we know how effective they are in general yet.


          Surprisingly, there are (or were) three times as many mink in Denmark as humans.

          I see there is a suggestion that the mutant virus may have become extinct in humans. It was found on five mink farms and in 12 humans, either workers on these farms or people living locally, in samples taken in August and September. But it hasn't yet been found in any samples from October (though the sequencing takes several weeks, so it's not clear how much of October has been sequenced).


          (Edit: The other thing to note is that the preliminary finding is that the variant has "moderately decreased sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies" (my emphasis). Given that vaccines are not expected to produce complete or permanent immunity anyway, I think it's very premature to depict this as a doomsday scenario as parts of the media are doing.


          But I think this does underline the sheer lunacy of a herd immunity strategy, in which most of the population would be infected and the scope for mutation would be much greater.)

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          • I think the 90% efficacy rate of the Pfizer vaccine is very good news, not because that particular vaccine is going to save the world by itself, but because most of the frontrunners in the race gave broadly similar results in earlier trials. So we can hope that their efficacy too will be at the upper end of expectations.

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            • Originally posted by Chris Phillips View Post
              I think the 90% efficacy rate of the Pfizer vaccine is very good news, not because that particular vaccine is going to save the world by itself, but because most of the frontrunners in the race gave broadly similar results in earlier trials. So we can hope that their efficacy too will be at the upper end of expectations.
              In fact, coronavirus vaccines seem to be like London buses. You spend six months waiting for one and then two come along at once.

              Early results from trials of a Covid vaccine developed in Russia suggest it could be 92% effective.
              https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54905330

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              • Originally posted by Chris Phillips View Post
                But I think this does underline the sheer lunacy of a herd immunity strategy, in which most of the population would be infected and the scope for mutation would be much greater.

                Quite so, Chris. This is such a bizarre virus, goodness knows what strange, and potentially even more dangerous, variants we could have ended up with if we'd allowed it to run unchecked through the entire population.
                Kind regards, Sam Flynn

                "Suche Nullen"
                (F. Nietzsche)

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Chris Phillips View Post
                  I think the 90% efficacy rate of the Pfizer vaccine is very good news, not because that particular vaccine is going to save the world by itself, but because most of the frontrunners in the race gave broadly similar results in earlier trials. So we can hope that their efficacy too will be at the upper end of expectations.
                  The consensus seems to be that the 90% figure will be the lower end of a statistical confidence interval for the true efficacy. If that's right, probably something more like 95% was observed, giving confidence that the true figure is very likely to be between 90% and 100%.

                  I think I'm right in saying that, while the Pfizer vaccine produced one of the stronger immune reactions in earlier trials, most of the vaccine candidates were broadly similar, and the Pfizer result wasn't the strongest of all.

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                  • I wonder what the strategy will be for people who refuse to be vaccinated for no good reason.

                    If I were in charge, I'd want to keep them in lockdown.
                    I wish I were two puppies then I could play together - Storm Petersen

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                    • Interesting article from Nature on vaccine production plans. The focus is on the fact that the EU and five other rich countries (Canada, USA, UK, Australia and Japan) have cornered the market so far. These are the only countries that have ordered the required two doses per head of the population, and between them they account for about half of the global projected production capacity: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03370-6

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                      • Personally I'll be quite happy to get the vaccine. If it means being able to travel again and life returning to somewhere close to normal, then it's worth it. We've already had to have other vaccinations to be able to go to certain places, so I fail to really see the difference.

                        In a couple of weeks I'll be attending a sports match, we're allowed 50% of stadium capacity at present, although it varies state to state. Given that the last one I was meant to attend in March was cancelled due to the rapid onset of COVID, I'm hoping this is a significant step forward, vaccine or no vaccine.

                        Continued best wishes to everyone here!

                        Cheers,
                        Adam.

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                        • Interesting that the manufacturers cannot say yet whether their vaccine actually kills the virus. Yes, they are 95?% sure it helps your body defend itself against the virus, but can you still pass the virus on to others? Do we still need to wear a mask, wash hands, stay 6 feet apart? How long does immunity last; 1 month, 6 months, a year?, longer? As the virus mutates (as often occurs) will we need a periodic booster shot at regular intervals? All new territory, but we cannot assume this is the end, or even the beginning of the end. It is perhaps the end......oh, sorry, someone else said that......
                          Regards, Jon S.
                          "
                          The theory that the murderer is a lunatic is dispelled by the opinion given to the police by an expert in the treatment of lunacy patients......."If he's insane
                          " observed the medical authority, "he's a good deal sharper than those who are not".
                          Reynolds Newspaper, 4 Nov. 1888.

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                          • Originally posted by Wicker Man View Post
                            Interesting that the manufacturers cannot say yet whether their vaccine actually kills the virus. Yes, they are 95?% sure it helps your body defend itself against the virus, but can you still pass the virus on to others? Do we still need to wear a mask, wash hands, stay 6 feet apart? How long does immunity last; 1 month, 6 months, a year?, longer? As the virus mutates (as often occurs) will we need a periodic booster shot at regular intervals? All new territory, but we cannot assume this is the end, or even the beginning of the end. It is perhaps the end......oh, sorry, someone else said that......
                            I suppose it was decided that regular antigen testing for all the participants in the trials - to reveal asymptomatic as well as symptomatic infections - would be too much to ask. I believe at least a proportion of the participants in the UK AstraZeneca did have regular antigen testing, so maybe some information about that will emerge. But maybe the numbers will be too small to be conclusive.

                            Those who understand these things seem to think it's likely the vaccines will dramatically reduce all infections, not just symptomatic ones. But I think the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

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                            • A vaccine by itself doesn't kill a virus. It makes the persons anti-bodies do that by stimulating them.

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                              • Alas, the vaccine arrived too late for my cousin, who I've just heard died of COVID-19 earlier today.
                                Kind regards, Sam Flynn

                                "Suche Nullen"
                                (F. Nietzsche)

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