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New Deadly Virus is Spreading/ Covid19 Pandemic 2020

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  • Originally posted by Caroline Brown View Post
    I imagine that the lockdown and social distancing measures will have considerably reduced the number of ordinary coughs and colds doing the rounds.
    Speaking for myself, I haven't had so much as a cold or a stomach bug since those measures were introduced. As a public-transport commuter, working in an organisation with thousands of employees, I'd normally expect to have had some mild illness or other over the past 6 months.
    Kind regards, Sam Flynn

    "Suche Nullen"
    (F. Nietzsche)

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Chris Phillips View Post
      The frustrating thing is that in the UK infection rates did fall to a very low level, and the impression we were given was that the restrictions would be gradually relaxed, but not beyond the point where numbers started rising again.


      What has happened in practice is that the government somehow got the totally irrational idea that the virus had magically become non-infectious and that we could go largely back to normal ("by Christmas" according to Johnson a couple of months ago). And the restrictions have continued to be loosened despite the fact that the numbers of new cases have been rising for about 6 weeks. Only about three weeks ago, the government launched a major campaign to persuade people to stop working at home and return to the workplace. So now we find ourselves with infections rocketing.
      I think the battle has already been lost and with the 'necessity' of opening schools and universities, there can be no containment. No reason to harm economies any further if students need to pack into institutions of learning. God knows they will swap any infectious microbes and share with everyone else.

      The best news/advice I have seen is to wear masks in public places. Repeated low viral loads through a mask may work as well--perhaps safer than--a vaccine. Because of my past difficulties with viruses I have long been very careful, sometimes used masks and avoided crowds. In many ways I am strong and I am physically fit, but my system does not handle some modern viruses.
      The wickedness of the world is the dream of the plague.~~Voynich Manuscript

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Sam Flynn View Post
        I very much doubt it.
        I'd much prefer a government doing it's best with the scientific advice they've been given and not always getting it right, than listen to the self righteous know-alls with nothing but the benefit of hindsight to back up their ponderings any day.

        Comment


        • Speaking for myself, I haven't had so much as a cold or a stomach bug since those measures were introduced. As a public-transport commuter, working in an organisation with thousands of employees, I'd normally expect to have had some mild illness or other over the past 6 months.
          -Gareth-

          I was going to say the same thing the other day, Gareth....and that goes for Nina too. Aside from one or two flare-ups with muscles aches ( Nina) and me and my now vanished arthritic pain....we're in better shape than we were two years ago.
          I attribute it to our wearing a mask.




          Seriously
          , Gareth....I wear a surgical mask... I couldn't resist posting the photo.
          To Join JTR Forums :
          Contact Howard@jtrforums.com

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Paul Butler View Post
            I'd much prefer a government doing it's best with the scientific advice they've been given and not always getting it right, than listen to the self righteous know-alls with nothing but the benefit of hindsight to back up their ponderings any day.

            If only it were the benefit of hindsight. If only it had not been blindingly obvious at the time.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Paul Butler View Post
              I'd much prefer a government doing it's best with the scientific advice they've been given and not always getting it right, than listen to the self righteous know-alls with nothing but the benefit of hindsight to back up their ponderings any day.
              Hindsight?


              Judging by what was happening in China, Italy and Spain, some of us could see this coming back in February.
              Kind regards, Sam Flynn

              "Suche Nullen"
              (F. Nietzsche)

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Sam Flynn View Post
                Hindsight?


                Judging by what was happening in China, Italy and Spain, some of us could see this coming back in February.
                Nobody, let alone the self righteous know-alls could have predicted how this was going to pan out back as far as February. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Paul Butler View Post
                  Nobody, let alone the self righteous know-alls could have predicted how this was going to pan out back as far as February. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

                  Well, the government didn't come up with the lunatic idea of pursuing herd immunity until early March, but it was immediately obvious to plenty of people how mad it was, and thankfully they were dissuaded from it.


                  And the idea that after the lockdown we could go back to normal, and the virus would forbear from spreading for some reason, was just plain scientific illiteracy.


                  You can easily cure your idea that any of that requires "hindsight", just by reading this thread!

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Chris Phillips View Post
                    Well, the government didn't come up with the lunatic idea of pursuing herd immunity until early March, but it was immediately obvious to plenty of people how mad it was, and thankfully they were dissuaded from it.


                    And the idea that after the lockdown we could go back to normal, and the virus would forbear from spreading for some reason, was just plain scientific illiteracy.


                    You can easily cure your idea that any of that requires "hindsight", just by reading this thread!
                    I read it. Nobody knew how this was going to pan out, and certainly not you. You have to wonder why the government bothered to listen to scientific opinion when all they needed was some bloke off the internet to advise where they were going wrong.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Paul Butler View Post
                      I read it. Nobody knew how this was going to pan out, and certainly not you. You have to wonder why the government bothered to listen to scientific opinion when all they needed was some bloke off the internet to advise where they were going wrong.

                      You seem to have got yourself into such a state that you can't read a simple sentence and take it in.


                      Read it again:
                      "Well, the government didn't come up with the lunatic idea of pursuing herd immunity until early March, but it was immediately obvious to plenty of people how mad it was, and thankfully they were dissuaded from it."


                      The government had a crazy plan. It was obvious to most people how crazy it was. As a result, the government dropped it.

                      Comment


                      • The problem is, government and science have had to balance choices and decisions against the needs of a huge global population.

                        We have seen how the food chain can be disrupted due to transportation and other factors. People in big cities are dependent upon food delivery. Even here in the rural west we could not get quite a few things for awhile. Interestingly dairy products were restricted while it was reported that dairy farmers, 50 miles down the road, were dumping milk.

                        There have been those who say quarantining the healthy has never stopped an epidemic. Others, myself included, did not believe the virus could be stopped after a certain point. (I have followed all rules and have the advantage of being alone most of the time.)

                        On the latter point I think this must be accepted at this time since schools are opening so strongly. Back when schools closed and graduates got no ceremonies, I think science thought the infection could be stopped.

                        Before there were vaccines for everything, herd immunity was a tool. I had never heard the term 'chickenpox party' until this year but when I was young, parents deliberately exposed kids to 'childhood diseases' so we could get them while young. If those diseases were contracted in adulthood, it was said they were very severe, even fatal or damaging.

                        As I said before, the most sensible information at this time is that obtaining small doses of virus in public, low viral load, through a mask, could lead to immunity. If enough obtain this immunity then herd immunity could be achieved. I have been doing a bit more shopping with this in mind, though I think I already had the virus. (I am seeing my doctor today so will ask her about tests, etc.)

                        Herd immunity aside, I keep thinking of the old comment that there would never be a vaccine against the 'common cold' because the viruses change too fast. It looks to me like there are too many viruses that cause the common cold, including corona viruses. On the other hand it is said corona viruses mutate slowly. Flu mutates rapidly and we have best guess vaccines every year.
                        The wickedness of the world is the dream of the plague.~~Voynich Manuscript

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Paul Butler View Post
                          Nobody, let alone the self righteous know-alls could have predicted how this was going to pan out back as far as February. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
                          Well, this self-righteous know-all was already masking his face on public transport in early March, and keeping himself well away from any passenger who was coughing or sneezing. Just as well, really, because a few weeks later two cases of COVID were traced to a school directly on my bus-route.

                          Oh, and it was obvious from what was happening in Italy and Spain that we could expect the same to happen here.
                          Kind regards, Sam Flynn

                          "Suche Nullen"
                          (F. Nietzsche)

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sam Flynn View Post
                            Well, this self-righteous know-all was already masking his face on public transport in early March, and keeping himself well away from any passenger who was coughing or sneezing. Just as well, really, because a few weeks later two cases of COVID were traced to a school directly on my bus-route.

                            Oh, and it was obvious from what was happening in Italy and Spain that we could expect the same to happen here.
                            I stocked up on extra provisions in early March, used masks and generally isolated myself. I wouldn't even eat take out food because research was saying the virus could be easily contracted trough touch.
                            The wickedness of the world is the dream of the plague.~~Voynich Manuscript

                            Comment


                            • I was amazed by the recent reported comments of Kate Bingham, head of the UK "Vaccine Taskforce". She seemed to be suggesting that in the UK, only those over 50 will be vaccinated (and possibly some other key workers, though she expressed herself very badly if so). The impression she gave is that this was a matter of policy, not just a question of prioritising limited resources. She even went so far as to suggest younger people shouldn't be vaccinated because they might suffer "freak harm". (Does her job description actually include providing ammunition for anti-vaxers??)

                              The idea that you can protect vulnerable people by giving them a vaccine which may be only 60-70% effective, but not attempting to control the spread of the virus through universal vaccination, seemed so bizarre to me that I wondered who this Kate Bingham was and what her academic qualifications were. I thought perhaps she had gone straight into the world of business and/or politics immediately after getting her Ph.D. and was therefore rusty on matters of basic science and arithmetic.

                              It turned out to be worse than that. It seems her only academic scientific qualification is a bachelor's degree in biochemistry, after which she headed to Harvard Business School. Her job is "co-leading biotech investments" for an investment fund:
                              https://svhealthinvestors.com/people/kate-bingham

                              I suppose as I am over 50 I should try to take comfort from the fact I may be among the winners of this UK vaccination lottery, but on the whole I just find it frightening.

                              Comment


                              • One of the vaccines in development is said to work in older people. Maybe it works best in older people? Maybe more risks can be taken in the older population? It is frightening how all of medicine is politicized.

                                For some reason, we hear of neurological complications from new vaccines, as happened with the swine flu vaccine many years ago. I have not looked into this phenomena recently to see if science has any better ideas of why.
                                The wickedness of the world is the dream of the plague.~~Voynich Manuscript

                                Comment

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