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    Mr. Poster
    Ph.D. Ripperologist

  • Mr. Poster
    replied
    Hi ho Nemo

    Whitechapel was as bad as it was supposed to be
    Im always surprised that there werent more killings down there. But everything Ive read suggests that murder rates there werent exactly through the roof.

    Then again, murder is not exactly a poverty driven crime (no point killing someone if they have nothing) and it seems that crime in Whitechapel was more drink/thieving/mugging/general disarray type of stuff?

    Which of course all contributes to the concept of decent people in Whitechapel, which, we are often assured, just didnt happen given Whitechapels bad reputation.

    However, seeing as murder and mayhem (sweet! What a word!) were hardly rampant and that any grown man with a swordstick or even harsh language and Queensbury rules can deflect a robbery....... I dont see why the reputation of Whitechapel as a place to be robbed would have deterred anyone in good health and the ability of dealing out a sound thrashing from being there. Especially as the stuff on offer could hardly be gotten in Mayfair.

    Its not like they were going to be set upon immediately by gun toting homicidal gangs.

    I was in Manilla last year for a while and in the company of one other male spent a few nights wandering around central Manilla in the old town. I cannot imagine that whitechapel was any worse than that and apart from the hordes of urchins and whores......... its not like I ever felt my life was on the line.

    Robbery is their main intent and any savvy person can avoid that by just being aware of their surroundings and not carrying much cash.

    Indeed, although dressing like a westerner attracts them like flies, it also seems to carry some kind of unconcious gravitas for some reason. perhaps because they know that a westerner will be viewed more favourably by the law or whatever. In addittion it was quite apparent to both of us that being dressed thus afforded us some protection because the less criminally minded identify you immediately as someone from whom they can semi-legitametaly earn a few quid by selling crap or whatever and an odd self regulating mechanism comes into effect. The semi-respectable people who want you in their pub/eaterie tend to shoo away the hawkers, the hawkers tended to shoo away the hoookers, the hookers tended to shoo away the urchins and the urchins tended to shoo away the dogs and rats.


    Either way (and I imagine it would have been similar for a toff in Whitechapel) if one sticks to the lit main streets and keeps them within striking distance.....life and limb is not at risk.

    p

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  • Guest
    Guest

  • Sam Flynn
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by How Brown View Post
    What are the odds of two prostitutes being killed in one hour in essentially the same neighborhood and on the street ?
    I have reservations about "essentially the same neighbourhood", How. Remember, we're talking about a huge population density wedged between one location and the next - a factor, in itself, that needs to be borne in mind. The denser a population, the higher the number of criminals (including potential murderers) within it - this needs to be especially borne in mind, given that the part of London which intervened between Berner Street and the City was a notorious slum area.

    As to "two prostitutes" within "one hour" and "on the street"... aren't all those things what one might expect of the prostitute population? In other words, I don't see that prostitutes being on the streets in the small hours is all that significant - because that's what streetwalkers do.

    (Incidentally, I have doubts as to whether one, other or both of these women were "prostitutes" in the conventional sense - but let's not over-complicate the discussion!)

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  • Paul Kearney A.K.A. NEMO
    Theorist & Speculator

  • Paul Kearney A.K.A. NEMO
    replied
    With all the talk of the Ripper at the time, and if Whitechapel was as bad as it was supposed to be, and with so many knives and madmen about - I'm surprised there wasn't 2 prostitutes killed every hour...

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  • Mr. Poster
    Ph.D. Ripperologist

  • Mr. Poster
    replied
    Hi How

    By How:

    What are the odds of two prostitutes being killed in one hour in essentially the same neighborhood and on the street ?
    By P:

    Probably a lot greater than two prositutes being killed within the hour, in the same part of town, by having their throats cut ....
    Great minds think alike......

    p

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  • Mr. Poster
    Ph.D. Ripperologist

  • Mr. Poster
    replied
    Hi ho Jon

    No idea. Probably a lot greater than two prositutes being killed within the hour, in the same part of town, by having their throats cut ....

    While I don't see Liz's being attacked by two men on the night being outrageously improbable......the chances of both Liz and Eddowes having being fatally attacked by two different men in the same hour in the same area with the same type of attack just seem a little small to me.

    But I am genuinely haveing trouble trying to work out where BS, assuming he wasnt the final attacker on Liz, fits in to all this.

    If Liz and Eddowes were killed by the same man.....the ripper....does that mean, on the balance of probabilities, that BS must have been the ripper?

    Or if he wasnt...it is plausible that Liz was attacked once....and then in a very unlucky happenstance got killed by the Ripper? Or else that Liz was attacked twice by different men, neither of whom was the ripper, who was operating a little further away.

    I do not see it as unlikely that a whore could be attacked (and lets face it, BS mans activities were hardly a full scale assault and may have just been a whore and an awkward customer/potential customer/thief) once and then again later on. By the ripper.

    I do not actually see anything excluding that concept at all.

    Indeed...entering into complete speculation....and given that all the other victims were women in desperate need/distress/tricky situations......I do actually see a situation whereby it was BS's assault on Liz that placed her unwittingly in the exact position of all the others.


    before BS's assault she was a big mouthy whore well able to look after her self (she didnt get her teeth knocked out by accident methinks).

    After the assault she may well have been in the same situation as Polly or Annie......a bit distressed, slightly taken aback, open to an approach by a stranger that might in other circumstances not have happened.

    Jack walks along, finds her in her discomfiture, perhaps gives her a packet of cachous as a friendly gesture (like a hanky to Kelly, a few coppers to Polly or whatever) and next thing she has her throat cut.

    Indeed in summary I could posit that BS's attack on Liz could have propelled her into the same type of victim situation as all the rest and that without the attack she may have been a bit much too handle for our man. Given his predeliction for women who were very vulnerable, even for whores, it may have been the attack that put Liz in the crosshairs.

    p

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  • Howard Brown
    Registrar

  • Howard Brown
    replied
    What are the odds of two prostitutes being killed in one hour in essentially the same neighborhood and on the street ?

    Leave a comment:

  • Howard Brown
    Registrar

  • Howard Brown
    replied
    Sammy:

    Because I've gotta relaxed brain ,I goofed and should have said "When was the first time two women were killed ( from the same profession) on the street by knives? "

    Maybe we ought to look into that, regardless of where we both stand on the odds factor, buddy.

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  • Guest
    Guest

  • Sam Flynn
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by How Brown View Post
    Murder on the street was not as common as one might surmise from seeing how many murders occurred in total. Would you not agree,dear pal?
    I guess murders take place wherever they happen to occur, How - especially manslaughter and "heat of the moment" killings, of which Stride's appears to bear at least some hallmarks.
    I wonder in what year the first recorded double event other than the Stride/Eddowes murders occurred in London.
    ...or the next? I don't think it matters overmuch whether we look for precedents or not - it's the "co-incidence" (deliberate hyphen) of two or more murders within a reasonable radius and time-span that's of interest here. (We could extend the argument to any two broadly similar - but comparatively rare - events, actually. Can't see why murders should be anything special.)

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  • Guest
    Guest

  • Sam Flynn
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Caroline Morris View Post
    A clue might be in the fact that even in crime-sodden Whitechapel, the murders of Emma Smith and Martha Tabram were considered by anyone's standards at the time to be way beyond the norm and exceedingly horrific in nature. That has to mean something, surely
    It might simply mean that those two murders were, in actual fact, beyond the norm, Caz. A stick puncturing the vagina and thirty-nine stabs are rather more unusual than a bog-standard slit throat, after all.

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  • Howard Brown
    Registrar

  • Howard Brown
    replied
    Thanks Joe.


    Whatever the "true" figure, the odds against two independent killers pinging Stride and Eddowes within an hour or so would be orders of magnitude less than 14 million to one.- Sammy

    So would the odds on many less likely to happen events, Sam, like two men with the Elephant Man disease staying at the LH...I take your point too, don't get me wrong...I ain't out to argue. Murder on the street was not as common as one might surmise from seeing how many murders occurred in total. Would you not agree,dear pal?

    I wonder in what year the first recorded double event other than the Stride/Eddowes murders occurred in London. Since London has a stable population ( either stable or accelerating since 1880...lets go back to that year), I think it might be a good exercise to look into that sort of double event ever happening.

    With knives or without. With two prosses or non-prosses.

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  • Mr. Poster
    Ph.D. Ripperologist

  • Mr. Poster
    replied
    I agree with your main point, Howard. The man who committed these murders had familiarized himself quite well with Whitechapel. But I don't think he necessarily had to have been a "local" man to achieve this.
    Exactly. Im sure many people were familiar enough with Whitechapel to be able to venture a short distance away from the main streets and be able to find their way back again without ever having lived there or even anywhere near it.

    p

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  • Guest
    Guest

  • Joe Chetcuti
    Guest replied
    I agree with your main point, Howard. The man who committed these murders had familiarized himself quite well with Whitechapel. But I don't think he necessarily had to have been a "local" man to achieve this.

    Back to Berner Street. My opinion of Israel Schwartz has not changed over the years. I never came across anything that would make me think that his account was fabricated. We heard some slight skepticism about him earlier on this thread, but it's a skepticism that was very generalized. Looking at Schwartz as an individual, I don't think the man did anything that warranted him to be characterized as a liar or an attention-seeker. It's more likely he was just at the wrong place at the wrong time.

    Stewart once gave us some good advice about "how we must look at each of these murders separately." It's smart thinking. A man like Schwartz shouldn't be disregarded simply because Pearly Poll and Hutchinson were questionable people. But since this is an "odds" thread, I'll get down to the nitty-gritty. I'd consider it a better than 70-30 chance that Schwartz's testimony was legitimate.

    I also think there was a better than 50-50 chance that Stride's killer had fled the murder site before Diemschutz even approached that area. But that's another topic for another day

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  • Mr. Poster
    Ph.D. Ripperologist

  • Mr. Poster
    replied
    Hi SamF

    I have no strong notions on the matter (aprat from the fact that is ultimately pointless).....
    I just wanted to show that the chances of two East End murders happening in the same day might not be as "unlikely" as it might first appear, and that even "long" odds aren't as scary as one might think.
    But what are the odds of two murders happeing in the same hour or so?

    p

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  • Guest
    Guest

  • Sam Flynn
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by How Brown View Post
    Back to you...

    I notice the absence of the location of the murders in the numbers,daddio.
    There was absence of location in the original data, so there's not much I can do about that, How. Besides, like I said, all I wanted to do was to point out that events with seemingly "very long" odds can - and do - happen more frequently than some folks might think. Seriously - if the odds against a Double Event were 14 million to one, it wouldn't be particularly scary; those are the odds of scooping the UK National Lottery jackpot, which I guess happens once every month on average. Whatever the "true" figure, the odds against two independent killers pinging Stride and Eddowes within an hour or so would be orders of magnitude less than 14 million to one.

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  • Howard Brown
    Registrar

  • Howard Brown
    replied
    Sam:

    Thanks for the maths.

    In light of your data...and before I say anything else, I feel the Ripper was a local man after around a decade of mulling it over. Too many side street murders for my liking.....and unless demonstrated one way or the other conclusively, Nichols,Kelly,Chapman,and Stride were killed off the beaten track and probably,not definitely, were picked up and murdered on the side streets they were found. I'd exclude Eddowes, since she may have met her killer on an arterial road.

    Back to you...

    I notice the absence of the location of the murders in the numbers,daddio.

    Got numbers for street jobs?

    Leave a comment:

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