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Mary Jane Kelly Child: The DNA Evidence

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  • Mary Jane Kelly Child: The DNA Evidence

    The match was confirmed after the Casebook link with the family tree done by Chris Scott was sent to him.


    culmer.jpg
    Last edited by Markus Aurelius Franzoi; February 25, 2022, 02:19 PM.

  • #2
    Thank you, SF.

    I am not quite understanding the point. Someone connected to MJK can be traced through DNA?

    How does that imply that MJK had a child?

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    • #3
      Hi Kattrup,

      An MJK candidate's great granddaughter is a familial DNA match with the fourth cousin of one of the real MJK's boyfriends.

      Without saying which, I'll say that this candidate has no known blood family links to London except through first generation and only one generation Londoners from other parts of England (the grandparents and parents of the assumed boyfriend/father and I believe great grandmother MJK) so there should be no direct familial link to a Londoner, or Continentals or non Northern Irish immigrants, the candidate being of Northern Irish extraction. The grandchildren then moved to Australia.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by San Fran View Post
        Hi Kattrup,

        An MJK candidate is a distant cousin of one of the real MJK's boyfriends. it shows up as a familial match with the granddaughter of the child born during the relevant East End period.

        Without saying which, I'll say that this candidate has no known blood family links to London except through first generation Londoners from other parts of England (the grandparents and parents and I believe great grandmother MJK) so there should be no direct familial link to a Londoner. The grandchildren then moved to Australia.
        This sounds pretty remote from the people of interest in this case. In other words, a nonstarter.
        Christopher T. George, Lyricist & Co-Author, "Jack the Musical"
        https://www.facebook.com/JackTheMusical/ Hear sample song at https://tinyurl.com/y8h4envx.

        Organizer, RipperCon #JacktheRipper-#True Crime Conferences, April 2016 and 2018.
        Hear RipperCon 2016 & 2018 talks at http://www.casebook.org/podcast/.

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        • #5
          For everyone to view.
          https://s11.postimg.org/guqvlc3

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          • #6
            Your images aren't showing up, San.
            To Join JTR Forums :
            Contact [email protected]

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            • #7
              Pennsylvania is a sticking point with so many cousins with relatives in their trees from there but that's because it was a colony.

              It's like the Garden of Eden?
              Attached Files

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              • #8
                Someone asked me to clarify what this means.

                It means that anyone in North America is going to have cousin DNA matches with Pennsylvanians in their family tree.

                It doesn't mean your familial link with anyone has to be there. So don't look at Howard. That includes police agencies uploading DNA evidence from cold cases onto Ancestry!

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                • #9
                  So don't look at Howard

                  http://www.philadelphiazoo.org/Anima...d-Gorilla.aspx

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Robert Linford View Post
                    How come this link goes to "Adopt a Gorilla" in the Philadelphia Zoo? Are some of How's relatives having a hard time?
                    The wickedness of the world is the dream of the plague.~~Voynich Manuscript

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                    • #11
                      This is the same method used by the police in California to identify the Golden State Killer. They used GEDmatch instead of Ancestry and found familial DNA matches with distant cousins. Same as here.

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                      • #12
                        I read, concerning the Golden State Killer DNA, that the field is somewhat narrow and I am not sure distant cousins fit in. As I recall, parent/child or siblings are 50% possibilities and first cousins are 10%. I think there was another category. Maybe siblings are less than 50%. Beyond that it was said the chance of making a match is slim.
                        The wickedness of the world is the dream of the plague.~~Voynich Manuscript

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                        • #13
                          All I've read said it was 100 distant cousins with the GS Killer with maybe one as high as third cousin. We don't know which cousin gave the tip.

                          https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/26/us/go...ort/index.html

                          With a distant cousin, which is considered 5th and up with Ancestry, you have .05 % shared DNA unless there's inbreeding. Typically less than 2% chance of a match. But you have so many distant cousins you have a high probability of finding some.

                          I have a thousand distant cousins on AncestryDNA. The low chance of a match is with only one specific distant cousin. 2% chance means you get a thousand out of 50000 genealogical cousins and there were a million and a half users on AncestryDNA. (Correction: 5 million as of 2017)

                          It only takes one positive to prove a positive. It takes many negatives to officially prove a negative.

                          The odds are greatly increased when you have two DNA samples from siblings on both sides. I worked out the odds somewhere but I have to find them.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by San Fran View Post
                            I have a thousand distant cousins on AncestryDNA. The low chance of a match is with only one specific distant cousin. 2% chance means you get a thousand out of 50000 genealogical cousins and there were a million and a half users on AncestryDNA.
                            Actually there were 5 million in AncestryDNA as of last year. So I’m guessing that means 1% are distantly related BUT WITH NO SHARED DNA.

                            GEDmatch has about 650000 in the database. That’s why the GS Killer only got 100 cousins. But by my calculations, at least one match was a sure thing. I don’t know the odds of getting the match that IDed him because I don’t know how close the match was or how distant the cousin.

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                            • #15
                              The formula to calculate odds of getting head on repeated coin tosses is -

                              1 - (.5 x .5 x .5 etc.)

                              So I figure the odds of getting a distant cousin familial match between 2 pairs of siblings if they are distantly related, 5th and over cousins, to be:

                              1 - (.98 x .98 x .98 x .98)

                              = 8%

                              There were probably other cousins too in the database I didn’t learn about but not all had family trees, some trees were locked as was this one, some trees might be incomplete, or a different branch, some didn’t reply as I recall, and of course I had to use one of the unusual family names to narrow the search. So ultimately the odds were probably much higher than 8%.

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